“But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.” (Daniel 12:4 King James Version)
Reference: https://learningsolutionsmag.com/articles/2468/marc-my-words-the-coming-knowledge-tsunami
I often think about how knowledge and how access to it has increased over the course of my life.
The doubling of knowledge took 100 years before 1900, now it doubles in 11-12 hours.
These are my observations:
- With so much information in the public domain, we can’t consume it all, so we tend to focus on certain areas, e.g. entertainment, sports, business, politics, etc. And within these areas, there are many perspectives and viewpoints to focus on. How do we know that the information we are downloading into our brains will promote our survival and success? What if what seems right to us sets us on the wrong path?
- All information is not the same. Some information is the result of extensive study and research, whereas other information comes from someone’s personal opinion. What makes things complicated is the number of seemingly well-researched books that were proven later to have a wrong perspective. 10 Famous Scientific Theories That Were Later Debunked
- The communication of information is magical in economic terms. Publishing information falls into the category of “recurring revenue” or “residual income.” Take the example of an author who spends six months writing a book. The book is published and the author receives royalties. The royalties continue to come in long after the initial effort. Everything is basically the initial fixed cost. To sell more books the amount of money spent is negligible… especially if the book is in digital form. Of course, in 2021 authors are more likely to communicate information via YouTube videos. I just watch a YouTube video from a young man named Andrei Jikh who said that he has many more than one million dollars producing YouTube videos in less than two years. What is interesting is that he wasn’t one of those people on the “ground floor”. He didn’t even start on YouTube until 2019 — 14 years after YouTube was created.
- Much of knowledge is hard to quantify or verify. This is especially true if the knowledge is based on opinion. Every portfolio manager who is given two minutes of air time on CNBC is really just speaking their opinion about how the economy or certain stocks will perform. All of them have a vested interest in stocks going up, so they will naturally take that perspective. Facts and statistics may bolster their case, but it does not necessarily mean what they are saying is true. There are a lot of statistics and facts to choose from, and you can find them to support two different perspectives that are diametrically opposed. This is illustrated by the seemingly equal number of economists who think we are heading for inflation versus those who think we are headed for a period of deflation.
So what do we do? First, try to be as objective as possible in consuming information, even while realizing we will never be truly objective. I like to listen to both sides of any argument and try to make my best judgment. Second, realize that we are constantly awash in misinformation — some of it intentionally meant to deceive us, and some of it very sincere. Whether, or not, the source is sincere, misinformation will not help us survive and succeed. We need to develop a keen sense of discernment in analyzing information. Admittedly, this is more of an art than a science.